Prediction markets on Sui

DeepBook is Sui's native on-chain order book. DeepBook Predict is the options protocol built on the same stack: rather than swapping one asset for another, you mint a position that resolves to a fixed payout depending on where an underlying price lands at a set expiry.

A position is defined by an expiry and a strike expressed as a price tick. Sentinel tick values express one-sided contracts — “above X” or “below X” — while a bounded pair expresses a range contract. The lifecycle is on-chain end to end: you mint, the position sits in your on-chain account until expiry, and you redeem it for the payout afterwards. On the testnet deployment the settlement asset is dUSDC. The DeepBook Predict reference page goes through the mechanics in full.

Most differences between prediction-market venues trace back to one choice: how the venue decides who won, and how long that takes. A venue that adjudicates outcomes through a challenge window and a dispute vote can list almost any question, but it cannot settle anything faster than the window. A venue that reads a price feed can only list questions that have a canonical price — and can settle them the instant the round closes.

Predict Bay takes the second path deliberately. Every market is a short-duration price market on a major crypto asset, so the thing being asked about already has a continuously published price. That removes adjudication entirely and replaces it with an oracle problem, which is smaller and more mechanical. The trade-off is real and runs both ways: we cannot list “will the central bank cut rates in September”, and a general event venue cannot settle an hourly BTC round in seconds without a price oracle doing the work anyway.

Sui's sub-second finality is what makes the short round practical rather than theoretical. It is not a marketing number here — it is the constraint that determines whether a one-hour market is an instrument or a race against confirmation time.

Five assets, each with its own market page: BTC, ETH, SUI, gold and oil. A strike is set at the open, you pick whether the asset finishes above or below it, and the round resolves against the on-chain price feed for that asset. Rounds run on a fixed schedule in UTC, so open and close times are known in advance rather than discretionary.

On Sui a position is an object you own rather than a row in a table someone else can rewrite. That is a real property and it is worth stating precisely, because this is where writing about Sui usually overreaches. Ownership means no contract can reassign your position. It does not mean a protocol has no administrative controls — a redemption still touches shared protocol state, and if that state carries a pause capability, owning the position object does not override it.

What the object model removes is the failure class where a balance you thought you held turns out to be an entry in a ledger someone else controls. What you still have to read is the Move source.