Predict Bay · Research
Technical writing on DeepBook Predict, binary options and the Sui trading stack. Written by the people building on it, with what is and is not live stated plainly.
By depth ↓
ECOSYSTEM
The category stopped being a crypto curiosity and became something people check like a scoreboard. That shift was about access, not cleverness. Here is what changed, where the volume actually sits, and the specific slice Predict Bay is built for — including a plain statement of what is not live yet.
PROTOCOL
DeepBook Predict is an on-chain binary options protocol on Sui. What that means in plain English — the contract, the order book, the mint-to-redeem lifecycle, and where Predict Bay fits.
PROTOCOL
What a prediction market is, how the DeepBook version differs from event-market platforms, and why a strike expressed as a price tick changes how settlement works.
TOKEN
DeepBook Predict does not issue a token of its own. DEEP, dUSDC and the pre-launch $PBAY are three different things, and only one of them decides whether your position pays.
MECHANICS
Two non-crypto assets, on a venue built for crypto price rounds. Adding them was not a configuration change: oil has no spot price feed to point at, and both markets close for a third of every week. Here is what that actually required.
TOKEN
$PBAY is pre-launch — no contract, no price, no announced date. Here is what a prediction-market platform token can plausibly do, what it structurally cannot, and how to take one apart before you decide it matters.
COMPARISON
Polymarket runs event markets on Polygon with an off-chain order book and an optimistic oracle. Predict Bay runs short-duration crypto price rounds resolved by an on-chain price feed, with zkLogin onboarding and a Sui settlement path that is still on testnet. Here is how the designs differ, and what is actually live on each.
MECHANICS
Three instruments, one underlying, three different payoff functions. Where the fixed-payout step function beats linear exposure, and where it throws away exactly the information you needed.
MECHANICS
A market that opens and settles inside sixty seconds has nowhere to hide a slow step. Here is what has to be true on-chain for that to work — the frozen reference tick everyone shares, odds read from the chain rather than estimated, and why the smallest on-chain stake is $2 rather than $1.
ECOSYSTEM
Sui zkLogin turns a Google sign-in into a real on-chain address, and sponsored transactions remove the need to hold SUI for gas. How the mechanism works, what the zero-knowledge proof hides, what it does not solve, and what is live on Predict Bay today.
MECHANICS
A central limit order book is one sorted list matched by price then time. Putting that list in consensus state rather than in a server changes what liquidity means — and binary options are where the difference shows up first.
MECHANICS
Where the settlement price comes from, what the contract does with it at expiry, and why an interface that cannot decide an outcome is a security property rather than a modesty claim.
ECOSYSTEM
Bottom-up through the layers an on-chain prediction market actually runs on — the object model, parallel execution, the order book, the options protocol, the oracle and the login — and the mechanism-level case for why they fit.