'29
Which party controls the US Senate in January 2029?
resolves Jan 12, 2029 · source: Certified results of the 2028 US Senate elections
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
Republican 52%
Democratic 46%
Neither 2%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
R
Republican
LEADER
+0.0pt today
0
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9
%
YES 52¢
NO 48¢
D
Democratic
+0.0pt today
0
1
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0
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%
YES 46¢
NO 54¢
N
Neither
+0.0pt today
0
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9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
R
Republican
chance
52%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 52¢
NO · 48¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 52¢
192.3
if Republican wins
+$83 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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R
Republican
YES 52¢ · NO 48¢ · chance 52%
TICKET
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