'26
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
resolves Nov 4, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 4%
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 3%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32%
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 62%
Someone else 0.5%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
AS
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
no 24h history yet
0
1
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8
9
%
YES 3.53¢
NO 96.47¢
AS
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2.68¢
NO 97¢
NS
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 31.71¢
NO 68.29¢
NS
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
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8
9
%
YES 61.58¢
NO 38.42¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
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8
9
.
0
1
2
3
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9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
AS
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
chance
4%
YES · 3.53¢
NO · 96.47¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 3.53¢
2832.9
if Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate wins
+$2591 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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AS
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
YES 3.53¢ · NO 96.47¢ · chance 4%
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