'26
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
resolves Dec 31, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 14%
August 14%
December 14%
September 14%
October 14%
November 14%
Someone else 14%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
N2
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
AU
August
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
DE
December
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
SE
September
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
OC
October
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
NO
November
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
N2
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
chance
14%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 14.29¢
NO · 85.71¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 14.29¢
699.8
if No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 wins
+$565 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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N2
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
YES 14.29¢ · NO 85.71¢ · chance 14%
TICKET
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