'26
VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
resolves Nov 4, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Democrat 40-45% 17%
Democrat 50-55% 30%
Democrat 55%+ 17%
Democrat 45-50% 22%
Democrat 35-40% 6%
Democrat 15-25% 0.5%
Democrat 30-35% 3%
Democrat 25-30% 0.5%
Democrat 0-15% 0.5%
Republican Wins 1%
Someone else 3%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
D4
Democrat 40-45%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 16.77¢
NO 83.23¢
D5
Democrat 50-55%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 29.77¢
NO 70.23¢
D5
Democrat 55%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 17.31¢
NO 82.69¢
D4
Democrat 45-50%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 21.86¢
NO 78.14¢
D3
Democrat 35-40%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 5.93¢
NO 94.07¢
D1
Democrat 15-25%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
D3
Democrat 30-35%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2.92¢
NO 97¢
D2
Democrat 25-30%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
D0
Democrat 0-15%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
RW
Republican Wins
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 3.26¢
NO 96.74¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
D4
Democrat 40-45%
chance
17%
YES · 16.77¢
NO · 83.23¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 16.77¢
596.3
if Democrat 40-45% wins
+$466 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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D4
Democrat 40-45%
YES 16.77¢ · NO 83.23¢ · chance 17%
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