'26
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
resolves Nov 4, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Paxton 3-6% 4%
Talarico 0-3% 34%
Talarico 3-6% 22%
Paxton 0-3% 28%
Talarico 6-9% 4%
Paxton 6-9% 2%
Talarico 12%+ 0.5%
Paxton 9-12% 2%
Talarico 9-12% 3%
Paxton 12%+ 1%
Someone else 0.5%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
P3
Paxton 3-6%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 4.44¢
NO 95.56¢
T0
Talarico 0-3%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 33.61¢
NO 66.39¢
T3
Talarico 3-6%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 21.94¢
NO 78.06¢
P0
Paxton 0-3%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 28.01¢
NO 71.99¢
T6
Talarico 6-9%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 4.16¢
NO 95.85¢
P6
Paxton 6-9%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
T1
Talarico 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
P9
Paxton 9-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
T9
Talarico 9-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2.57¢
NO 97¢
P1
Paxton 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
P3
Paxton 3-6%
chance
4%
YES · 4.44¢
NO · 95.56¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 4.44¢
2252.3
if Paxton 3-6% wins
+$2040 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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P3
Paxton 3-6%
YES 4.44¢ · NO 95.56¢ · chance 4%
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