'27
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
resolves Jan 1, 2027 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
7-8 11%
5-6 11%
<5 11%
9-10 11%
15-16 11%
>16 11%
13-14 11%
11-12 11%
Someone else 11%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
7-
7-8
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
5-
5-6
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
<5
<5
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
9-
9-10
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
15
15-16
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
>1
>16
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
13
13-14
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
11
11-12
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.11¢
NO 88.89¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
7-
7-8
chance
11%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 11.11¢
NO · 88.89¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 11.11¢
900.1
if 7-8 wins
+$755 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
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7-
7-8
YES 11.11¢ · NO 88.89¢ · chance 11%
TICKET
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