'27
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
resolves Jan 1, 2027 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
0 14%
5+ 14%
1 14%
2 14%
4 14%
3 14%
Someone else 14%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
0
0
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
5+
5+
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
1
1
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
2
2
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
4
4
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
3
3
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 14.29¢
NO 85.71¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
0
0
chance
14%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 14.29¢
NO · 85.71¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 14.29¢
699.8
if 0 wins
+$565 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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predictbay.io
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0
0
YES 14.29¢ · NO 85.71¢ · chance 14%
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