'26
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
resolves Sep 4, 2026 · source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
26°C 8%
25°C 8%
27°C 8%
28°C 8%
29°C 8%
30°C 8%
21°C or below 8%
23°C 8%
24°C 8%
22°C 8%
31°C or higher 8%
Someone else 8%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
26
26°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
25
25°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
27
27°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
28
28°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
29
29°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
30
30°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
2B
21°C or below
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
23
23°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
24
24°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
22
22°C
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
3H
31°C or higher
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
RELATED MARKETS
trump
LIVE
Will Trump praise Claudia Sheinbaum in August?
$0 24h vol
oil
LIVE
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
$0 24h vol
crypto
LIVE
BTC/USD — above or below in 10 minutes?
live rounds →
ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
26
26°C
chance
8%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 8.33¢
NO · 91.67¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 8.33¢
1200.5
if 26°C wins
+$1040 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
Sign in to trade
Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
MY POSITIONS
Sign in to see your positions on this market.
✦
Every settled trade earns Points while the testnet runs —
see what earns Points →
ACTIVITY
No trades on this market yet.
predictbay.io
Paper mode only — no real funds · outcomes and resolution rules are sourced from Polymarket; prices are set entirely by trading here
26
26°C
YES 8.33¢ · NO 91.67¢ · chance 8%
TICKET
Sign in to trade