'26
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
resolves Oct 26, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4% 24%
Flávio Bolsonaro <2% 16%
Lula da Silva <2% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6% 27%
Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8% 6%
Lula da Silva 2-4% 2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ 1%
Lula da Silva 6-8% 0.5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12% 0.5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10% 2%
Lula da Silva 4-6% 0.5%
Lula da Silva 12%+ 0.5%
Someone else 0.5%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
F2
Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 24.5¢
NO 75.5¢
F<
Flávio Bolsonaro <2%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 15.85¢
NO 84.15¢
L<
Lula da Silva <2%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 18.73¢
NO 81.27¢
F4
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 26.9¢
NO 73.1¢
F6
Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 6.39¢
NO 93.61¢
L2
Lula da Silva 2-4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
F1
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
L6
Lula da Silva 6-8%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
F1
Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
F8
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2.45¢
NO 97¢
L4
Lula da Silva 4-6%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
L1
Lula da Silva 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
F2
Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%
chance
24%
YES · 24.5¢
NO · 75.5¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 24.5¢
408.2
if Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4% wins
+$288 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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F2
Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%
YES 24.5¢ · NO 75.5¢ · chance 24%
TRADE
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