'26
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
resolves Oct 26, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 50%
Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 26%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ 0.5%
Lula da Silva <4% 12%
Lula da Silva 8-12% 0.5%
Lula da Silva 4-8% 1%
Lula da Silva 12%+ 0.5%
Someone else 0.5%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
F4
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 50.45¢
NO 49.55¢
F<
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 26.4¢
NO 73.6¢
F8
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.2¢
NO 91.8¢
F1
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
L<
Lula da Silva <4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.26¢
NO 87.74¢
L8
Lula da Silva 8-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
L4
Lula da Silva 4-8%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
L1
Lula da Silva 12%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
F4
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
chance
50%
YES · 50.45¢
NO · 49.55¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 50.45¢
198.2
if Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% wins
+$88 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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F4
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
YES 50.45¢ · NO 49.55¢ · chance 50%
TRADE
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