'26
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
resolves Oct 20, 2026 · source: https://www.elections.ab.ca/
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Remain 20–40% 26%
Leave wins 0.5%
Remain 40–60% 59%
Remain 60–80% 11%
Remain <20% 1%
Remain 80%+ 0.5%
Someone else 2%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
R2
Remain 20–40%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 25.91¢
NO 74.09¢
LW
Leave wins
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
R4
Remain 40–60%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 59.29¢
NO 40.71¢
R6
Remain 60–80%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 10.96¢
NO 89.04¢
R<
Remain <20%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
R8
Remain 80%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
R2
Remain 20–40%
chance
26%
YES · 25.91¢
NO · 74.09¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 25.91¢
386.0
if Remain 20–40% wins
+$267 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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ACTIVITY
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R2
Remain 20–40%
YES 25.91¢ · NO 74.09¢ · chance 26%
TRADE
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