'26
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
resolves Nov 3, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
Republicans 2-4% 8%
Democrats 6-8% 8%
Democrats 8-10% 8%
Democrats 2-4% 8%
Democrats 0-2% 8%
Democrats 10-12% 8%
Democrats 4-6% 8%
Republicans 0-2% 8%
Democrats 12-14% 8%
Republicans 6%+ 8%
Democrats 16%+ 8%
Republicans 4-6% 8%
Someone else 8%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
R2
Republicans 2-4%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D6
Democrats 6-8%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D8
Democrats 8-10%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D2
Democrats 2-4%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D0
Democrats 0-2%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D1
Democrats 10-12%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D4
Democrats 4-6%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
R0
Republicans 0-2%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D1
Democrats 12-14%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
R6
Republicans 6%+
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
D1
Democrats 16%+
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
R4
Republicans 4-6%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
R2
Republicans 2-4%
chance
8%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 7.69¢
NO · 92.31¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 7.69¢
1300.4
if Republicans 2-4% wins
+$1135 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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R2
Republicans 2-4%
YES 7.69¢ · NO 92.31¢ · chance 8%
TICKET
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