'26
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
resolves Nov 4, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
Republicans 2-4% 2%
Democrats 6-8% 2%
Democrats 8-10% 6%
Democrats 2-4% 22%
Democrats 0-2% 26%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 11%
Republicans 0-2% 3%
Democrats 12-14% 5%
Republicans 6%+ 1%
Democrats 16%+ 1%
Republicans 4-6% 1%
Someone else 0.5%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
R2
Republicans 2-4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
D6
Democrats 6-8%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
D8
Democrats 8-10%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 5.6¢
NO 94.4¢
D2
Democrats 2-4%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 21.82¢
NO 78.18¢
D0
Democrats 0-2%
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 26.09¢
NO 73.91¢
D1
Democrats 10-12%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 20.4¢
NO 79.6¢
D4
Democrats 4-6%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 11.39¢
NO 88.61¢
R0
Republicans 0-2%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2.89¢
NO 97¢
D1
Democrats 12-14%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 5.31¢
NO 94.69¢
R6
Republicans 6%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
D1
Democrats 16%+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
R4
Republicans 4-6%
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 2¢
NO 97¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
R2
Republicans 2-4%
chance
2%
YES · 2¢
NO · 97¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 2¢
5000.0
if Republicans 2-4% wins
+$4650 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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R2
Republicans 2-4%
YES 2¢ · NO 97¢ · chance 2%
TRADE
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