'26
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
resolves Oct 10, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
Donald Trump 8%
UNRWA 8%
Greta Thunberg 8%
Xi Jinping 8%
Ahmed al-Sharaa 8%
Charlie Kirk 8%
Mohammed bin Salman 8%
Elon Musk 8%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 8%
Vladimir Putin 8%
International Court of Justice 8%
Khaled Mashal 8%
Someone else 8%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
DT
Donald Trump
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
UN
UNRWA
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
GT
Greta Thunberg
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
XJ
Xi Jinping
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
AA
Ahmed al-Sharaa
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
CK
Charlie Kirk
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
MS
Mohammed bin Salman
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
EM
Elon Musk
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
RE
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
VP
Vladimir Putin
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
IJ
International Court of Justice
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
KM
Khaled Mashal
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.69¢
NO 92.31¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
DT
Donald Trump
chance
8%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 7.69¢
NO · 92.31¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 7.69¢
1300.4
if Donald Trump wins
+$1135 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
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DT
Donald Trump
YES 7.69¢ · NO 92.31¢ · chance 8%
TICKET
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