'26
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
resolves Oct 1, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
<4m sq km 13%
5m+ sq km 13%
4.6-4.8m sq km 13%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13%
4.4-4.6m sq km 13%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13%
4.8-5m sq km 13%
Someone else 13%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
<K
<4m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
5K
5m+ sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
4K
4.6-4.8m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
4K
4.0-4.2m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
4K
4.4-4.6m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
4K
4.2-4.4m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
4K
4.8-5m sq km
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 12.5¢
NO 87.5¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
<K
<4m sq km
chance
13%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 12.5¢
NO · 87.5¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 12.5¢
800.0
if <4m sq km wins
+$660 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
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Paper mode only — no real funds · outcomes and resolution rules are sourced from Polymarket; prices are set entirely by trading here
<K
<4m sq km
YES 12.5¢ · NO 87.5¢ · chance 13%
TICKET
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