'26
Lacy and Marlon # of Fortnite deaths during marathon?
resolves Oct 1, 2026 · source: https://www.twitch.tv/lacy
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
<100 8%
200-299 8%
100-199 8%
300-399 8%
400-499 8%
500-599 8%
800-899 8%
700-799 8%
1000+ 8%
900-999 8%
600-699 8%
Someone else 8%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
<1
<100
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
20
200-299
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
10
100-199
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
30
300-399
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
40
400-499
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
50
500-599
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
80
800-899
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
70
700-799
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
10
1000+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
90
900-999
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
60
600-699
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
<1
<100
chance
8%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 8.33¢
NO · 91.67¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 8.33¢
1200.5
if <100 wins
+$1040 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
Sign in to trade
Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
MY POSITIONS
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ACTIVITY
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predictbay.io
Paper mode only — no real funds · outcomes and resolution rules are sourced from Polymarket; prices are set entirely by trading here
<1
<100
YES 8.33¢ · NO 91.67¢ · chance 8%
TICKET
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