'26
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
resolves Oct 4, 2026 · source: Polymarket
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PAPER MODE · LIVE
IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 90 DAYS
Renan Santos Victory 8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8%
Lula da Silva <5% 8%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 8%
Lula da Silva 15%+ 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8%
Other 8%
Ratinho Júnior Victory 8%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory 8%
Someone else 8%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
RV
Renan Santos Victory
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
L1
Lula da Silva 10-15%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
L<
Lula da Silva <5%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
L5
Lula da Silva 5-10%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
L1
Lula da Silva 15%+
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
F<
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
F1
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
F5
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
OT
Other
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
RV
Ratinho Júnior Victory
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
TV
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
SE
Someone else
+0.0pt today
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 8.33¢
NO 91.67¢
prices in ¢ = implied probability · a winning share redeems for $1
paper book · chances always sum to 100%
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ORDER TICKET · PAPER
fee 5% at settlement
RV
Renan Santos Victory
chance
8%
· pick an outcome on the left
YES · 8.33¢
NO · 91.67¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 8.33¢
1200.5
if Renan Santos Victory wins
+$1040 profit
estimate — the server prices the fill, including your own impact
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Paper balance only — nothing at risk. A winning share redeems for $1 at settlement; sell any time before.
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RV
Renan Santos Victory
YES 8.33¢ · NO 91.67¢ · chance 8%
TICKET
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