'26
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
resolves Oct 1, 2026 · source: IMF PortWatch
24H VOLUME
$0
TRADERS
0
PRACTICE MODE · LIVE
CHANCE OVER TIME
ILLUSTRATIVE
24H
7D
30D
90D
<25 37%
25-29 40%
30-34 7%
35-39 6%
40+ 3%
Someone else 7%
OUTCOME
CHANCE
BUY
<2
<25
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 37.15¢
NO 62.85¢
25
25-29
LEADER
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 39.5¢
NO 60.5¢
30
30-34
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 6.5¢
NO 93.5¢
35
35-39
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 6.4¢
NO 93.6¢
40
40+
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 3.25¢
NO 96.75¢
SE
Someone else
no 24h history yet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
%
YES 7.2¢
NO 92.8¢
prices in ¢ = the chance · a winning share pays $1
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PLACE A TRADE · PRACTICE
fee 5% at settlement
<2
<25
chance
37%
YES · 37.15¢
NO · 62.85¢
STAKE
$25
$100
$250
$500
shares @ 37.15¢
269.2
if <25 wins
+$156 profit
estimate — the final price is set when you buy
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ACTIVITY
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<2
<25
YES 37.15¢ · NO 62.85¢ · chance 37%
TRADE
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